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The Roar

Francisco Roldan

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Joined May 2021

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Current Status: Decoding Rugby

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Personally I have followed the relationship between phases executed in 22 M Opp and conversion into tries and in the case of Wallabies it is 8 on average. The one who demanded the most effort was Los Pumas with 18.9 phases per try.

It's not Eddie's first rodeo, but old school methods could leave behind a trail of broken bodies

That’s right Brett, I agree with you. M. Carreras’ work rate is very good, both in attack and defense. But his contribution in tries is impressive. Do you remember his try vs Bristol Bears at Premiership…? Greetings Brett.

The Panel: The stars in our eyes after a fantastic fortnight

In NZL, DMac as 10 never ceases to impress me, but I stopped to applaud Jordie Barrett in 12 and Beauden in 15. No revelation, but a brutal confirmation. Same consideration for Le Roux in position 15 in RSA, Juan González (8) Julián Montoya (2) and Mateo Carreras (11) in ARG. Revelation for a Rugby Test: Carter Gordon (10) showed the flash that often sets the darkness ablaze. With enough work he will be able to properly detonate as 10 AUS.

The Panel: The stars in our eyes after a fantastic fortnight

I agree with you Andrew. In test rugby, if we exceed the digit on penalties we are in trouble. If the percentage of penalties focused on the breakdown exceeds 50% of the total, then we are close to a massive fail.

'Disaster': Wallabies hammered by Boks as Eddie Jones' return falls flat

Hello Sam, how are you…! Good performance-based read. AUS during 2022 accumulated 33 penalties originated in scrum during 14 games played. In this metric it sometimes outperforms ARG. Discipline is the main job to take into account in a world cup, because you would run the risk of being at the mercy of the best kickers in the world 🏉

ANALYSIS: Wallabies have serious issues with forward depth - but there's plenty of promise if rookies are required

I agree with your reading, Harry…! The problem in 2022 was 100% of the final quality of the execution, basically in the breakdown. Greetings

'Split squad', 'novice Bok 10': Why this is the Wallabies' best chance to 'exhume the Loftus graveyard'

Throughout 2022, the quality of the breakdown execution left a lot to be desired in AUS. Also discipline. Solving these situations, without a doubt they would be placed at the next level.

'Junkies for winning': How the Springboks, NRL are shaping Eddie's Wallabies 'blueprint'

Good analysis, Harry…! I am surprised that you forgot our great “wizard” Juan M. Hernandez or, going further back in time, Martín Sansot. Personally, I adore the work of Willie Le Roux: he fit and will fit perfectly into the Springbooks strategic bomber scheme. For this SanzarTRC, Los Pumas will probably plant Santiago Carreras, if Nico Sanches is reinstated at 10. Greetings…!

The Wallaby 15 should be more Burke than Folau: Eddie can win or lose the World Cup on his 'lone wolf' call

Totally agree with you about the ´caterpillar´ issue…! That formation needs variations right now because it doesn’t add enough unpredictability or surprises. Technically, it is a kick executed with the mark away, which would ensure a certain degree of precision and final effectiveness on the opponent. The kicking game metrics show that today we are far from that configuration.

Rugby's obsession with rewarding staid and mundane over creative and spectacular exposed in key GF moments

Interesting monitoring, Lindsay…! The rule indicates that the faster the game is, the greater the chances of generating penalties in contact both in attack and defense. Speed and imprecision are the great factors that conspire against discipline in contact. This without counting the human factor that the referee and his team contribute, and that could tip the game to its antipodes in minutes. From my reading, the Chiefs managed to run an average of 8 sucessfull rucks before being penalized versus 13 for the Crusaders. Eliminating the ‘discipline’ variable, Hamilton’s men executed 19 rucks before losing 1, versus 22 for the Crusaders.

Rugby's obsession with rewarding staid and mundane over creative and spectacular exposed in key GF moments

Thanks Jacob…! Interesting vision, about some men. Carter Gordon in particular is the kind of talented player any team would want. I think about Lolesio’s first steps and how he stalled his game at the Brumbies. Gordon, or his skills trainers, should establish a plan to improve the game that leads him to lower the number of -forced- errors that he makes in extreme situations, as I saw in SRP2023. With that improved detail he would already be at the next level. I love his style of game, when he looks to breach the transition zone.

The hunters and collectors: Five players eager to impress in the 2023 Rugby Championship

I agree with the article, Lindsay. The maul is under analysis and I suppose that at the end of RWC2023 we will have news or modifications to the way of playing or defending it. Regarding the efforts of the Chiefs against the Crusaders, I think the key was the high indiscipline in the breakdown (9 penalties) which resulted in opportunities and points conceded. Another fact that speaks of the power of the Crusaders in the ‘red zone’ is that 57% of the visits to 22 M broked the end zone, between the 5 M line and the ingoal. Finally, I think that high performance rugby cannot be played with 14 men on the field. It is impossible to structure a team defensively and the Chiefs suffered from it.

Rugby's obsession with rewarding staid and mundane over creative and spectacular exposed in key GF moments

Excellent note Geoff…! I really liked the approach you made to the issue of disputed arbitration. In Argentina we usually say that it is more comfortable to “play with the referee than against the referee”. Wasn’t it enough for Sam Cane, for example, to see the way refereeing resolved Bernard Foley’s controversial delay in taking a penalty at TRC2022…? We are all on notice about the rules. Adapting to them allows us to lessen, sometimes, the effect of excesses or deviations in their application. The rest of these stories, including the scripted participations of Rassie Erasmus, are part of the ‘society of the spectacle’, where the appearance takes the main role in front of the being. The Crusaders thing was a masterpiece of depth in his squad, and beyond the defeats in SRP2023, he kept his attack indicators firm and on the rise.

The Wrap: Epic Super Rugby Final delivers a double win for the All Blacks

Remarkable the performance of Crusaders 👍 . They are nothing short of infallible when the trumpets sound. With fewer meters traveled, they edged out Blues in AVG Meters per Carrie. That speaks of power and direction of the attack. The rest of the magic is the effectiveness of Mo’Unga, on the one hand, and the evanescence of Barrett on the other. I would love to see the Brumbies boys pat the podium. Could they make it…?, is the question I ask myself. If the Aussies generate enough chances and solve them efficiently in the last 15M of the red zone (as they did against the Hurricanes) they could pull it off 🏉

Magic Mo'unga and lethal Leicester lead Crusaders to crushing semi win, as Razor eyes off perfect farewell

These proposals, although they still remain on the drawing board, do nothing but ask me again about the abrupt cut of Jaguares, the Argentine Rugby Union franchise. Various arguments were put forward whose accuracy we were never aware of. Now we know the following idea-force: Make the competition grow by adding more teams… But isn’t this argument the reverse of the one used to cut the Jaguares’ tour and the RSA conference teams…? Personally, I am interested in the proposal to install a player draft that allows players to enjoy a sort of ‘amplified nationality’, since they would retain the chances of playing for their countries of origin. For the rest, I would love to see the Jaguares again in SuperRugby.

DMac at the Rebels and a team in Hawaii - draft and expansion fuel Hamish's grand vision for Super Rugby

Thanks Sam for the article…! I bet my small savings that the Brumbies manage to defeat the Hurricanes and advance to SF. The relationship between the Rucks and Kicks executed, which would give us the measure of the style of play adopted by the teams, shows the Australian side much more devoted to the game of Kicks (3.28 rucks per kicks vs 3.69). With a little more control in game retention, the main risk to be assumed by Brumbies is to Optimize the opportunities generated. And I agree with you on this as well. Greetings.

ANALYSIS: The 'mindless' tactic Brumbies must ditch to beat Hurricanes in a quarterfinal clash of styles

Your diagnosis is very interesting, Pandit…! The role of 10 is a role far from the definitions and characteristics that we used to assign to a playmaker 5 years ago. I share your appreciation that the 10 is a mere executor of the attack originated in the 9, towards the crashball. However, the ´X Factor´ is part of what differentiates a driver with ´compound or complex´ executions and abilities, from another that operates as a continuation of the activities of the 9. Personally, I think that the ´different playmaker´ ´ must present each semi-attack as something unpredictable and difficult to defend in their transition zones. Quade Cooper is my favourite, followed by Mo’Unga. Greetings

Why Nicolas Sanchez is the last of the technical 10s

How are you Sam…! Good comparative analysis. I really appreciate the work of Jack Gordon (especially his long pass) but there is no one like Tate to attack the base of formations and from the unstructured game (his long pass is too weak for now). I take Nick White’s tenure at AUS for granted. But, unfortunately they are all quite far from the current world standard for the position (Before Aaron Smith, today Dupont or J. Gibson-Park). I think that the ideal is to respect the size of the opponents and insert the 9 that respond to the formulated game plan. That, theoretically, would give everyone the chance to work.

ANALYSIS: The four types of No.9s and how Eddie's tactics will determine Nic White's World Cup partner

Excellent analysis Sam…! Wallabies during 2022 showed their difficulties not only to generate opportunities but also to take advantage of them. Basically, the risks in the management of Australia are concentrated in the breakdown dispute, where it shows the highest number of penalties. In the Autumn Series, he suffered 28 breakdown penalties in 5 matches and the lowest hold rate in rucks of SH teams. In RugbyChampionship 2022 he scored 44 penalty rucks in 6 matches. Whichever way Jones chooses to develop the game plans, he must have reassurance around the successful execution of the breakdown.

ANALYSIS: The three tactical paths open to Eddie at the RWC - and the one that suits his cattle best

Great narrative, Harry…! With almost 90% of the Los Pumas squad working away from home, a foreign traveler has been appointed as head coach, to arrive at RWC2023. The power of the metaphor, or better, of the allegory could not be more clarifying. Despite being a selected TIER1 team, we continue to trust foreign coaches: an exile for exiles, Cheika seems like the most high-voltage bet for Argentine rugby.

Michael Cheika and the SS Waratah: A story of a Wallabies coach and a shipwrecked cruisliner

Excellent note Christy…! I love everything about Eddie Jones speeches, as he’s kind of a tease provocations. I had the opportunity to see him in Argentina, in some conferences, and he never stopped provoking his audience. It is not new that the luck of the teams is played precisely in the definition zone. The novelty is that it is probably played too far from the 5 M line close to the ingoal, without clarity in the definition and with a too poor conversion rate. In SixNations 2023 the average number of 5M zone phases required to convert a try was 3.7. So the question is the quality conditions in possession with which we arrive at that zone of definition. Southern hemisphere rugby isn’t too far from that state of affairs, and neither is Australia’s. The possessions originated in won turnovers are an excellent work tool, because they generally find in the change of status an area where they generate confusion and loss of territory. Super fast and orderly transition, in addition to good communication, are essential materials to guarantee the use of this tool.

Five things we learned: The day Australia's playmakers arrived in thrilling RWC audition for Eddie

Thank you for presenting your initiatives, mate…! I think we are all aware of how limited the competitions are in the southern hemisphere. Even in the NH we have the trans-European competitions that the RSA teams have joined. In other words, there is still more activity than in Oceania. Something similar happens with the ‘Duplicate’ of SuperRugby in SuperRugbyAmericas, where professional franchises use players from clubs for a few months and then return them to their home unions. I’m not convinced by that: it’s like having a part-time job and then you have to look for a livelihood in other companies.
Greetings…!

To fix rugby, we must go back to the future

My preferences for Mo’Unga aside, I love Zarn Sullivan’s game…! His activity as 15, in Blues, is clearly important. I like his aptitude for meter gain after receiving in the backfield. The rest is done by his speed and his ability to not be outmatched in duels. Mo’Unga did not have a great match against Chief.

All Blacks lock down in-form No.10 to replace Japan bound stars after World Cup

The clarity and honesty of Du Plessis is up to a certain point ‘brutal’. I would love to hear more about your ‘niche proposition’ in scrum conditioning.

Revealed: Why Wallabies scrum guru walked away after Eddie arrival

Thanks Peter, I enjoyed your article…! It mobilized me to a zone of questions that perhaps I had not asked myself before. The most important of them would be the following: Where does the X factor end in a player, and where does the analytical player who waits ´crouching´ to act and inflict damage to the opponent…? I think Mo’Unga is a deeply instinctive player and represents the gifted ‘X Factor’ player. Much more than Barrett or McKenzie (that they would represent the ‘crouching’ hunter). So far, all my preferences are Mo’Unga. I just hope he recovers the power he left at the end of SuperRugby 2022.

Does Damian McKenzie possess the X-factor All Blacks need to win the World Cup?

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